The US govt spends billions of bucks each year to minimize uncertainty: to watch and forecast every little thing from the elements to the unfold of disorder. In different phrases, we spend some huge cash to count on difficulties, determine possibilities, and keep away from error. a considerable element of what we spend—over $50 billion a year—goes to the U.S. Intelligence Community.
Reducing Uncertainty describes what Intelligence neighborhood analysts do, how they do it, and the way they're suffering from the political context that shapes, makes use of, and occasionally abuses their output. specifically, it seems to be at why IC analysts pay extra realization to threats than to possibilities, and why they seem to concentration extra on caution concerning the risk of "bad issues" taking place than on supplying the enter beneficial for expanding the possibility of optimistic results.
The publication is meant to extend public realizing of what IC analysts do, to elicit extra suitable and optimistic feedback for development from open air the Intelligence group, to stimulate innovation and collaboration between analysts in any respect grade degrees in all corporations, and to supply a center source for college students of intelligence. the main helpful element of this booklet is the in-depth dialogue of nationwide Intelligence Estimates—what they're, what it capacity to claim that they characterize the "most authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community," why and the way they're vital, and why they've got such excessive political salience and symbolic value. the ultimate bankruptcy lays out, from an insider's point of view, the tale of the fallacious Iraq WMD NIE and its impression at the next Iran nuclear NIE—paying specific realization to the heightened political scrutiny the latter bought in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle.